Saturday, June 21, 2008

June 21st Post

Thanks for the input everyone! Please have patience with me... I intend to get back to the point where I can post nearly every day soon... the combination of returning from the 15-month tour in Iraq, recovering from my June 4th knee surgery and basically being out of college football for the entire 2007 season is making it a slower process to get my head back in the game then I thought... I don't like to post unless I have good topics and accurate data... right now I'm still trying to absorb as much college football information as possible but unfortunately June-July is usually the worst time of year for college football information flow!

I do have all the 2008 college football preseason publications (Athlon, Lindy's, Phil Steele, The Sporting News, etc.). I'm still trying to sort through all the SEC hype (Tim Tebow and Knowshon Moreno) in those magazines. I'm also highly disturbed that many of the predictions call for an 11-1 Ohio State team to be right back in the BCS Championship Game at the conclusion of the 2008 season. Is it just me or do the preseason magazines hit shelves earlier with each new year? I can remember when they would hit shelves in early August. Then it was early July. Now its late May and early June! It won't be long before the preseason magazines are coming out in mid-January!

From your comments:
1) Jordan Campbell is indeed listed as a LB instead of a FB on the current USC roster. This switch has me perplexed. I know that Campbell has stated all along that he'd rather be playing LB then FB but the Trojans are paper thin at FB. What is the deal with players not wanting to be a FB? Allen Bradford flat out refuses to play FB. These guys would get on the field so much more at the FB position! I know its not a glamor position but c'mon, take one for the team, and get yourself in the game! The only FBs on the roster are Stanley Havili, Adam Goodman and Matt Hillier. Havili has shown flashes of greatness but also been injury prone. Goodman is a former walk-on that has impressed the coaches enough to earn a scholarship. Hillier is a senior walk-on. Havili is a redshirt sophomore this season and will be redshirt junior in 2009. One of the comments said he will be a redshirt freshman this year but that is incorrect. Goodman is a redshirt junior and will likely still be with the team as a senior in 2009.

2) I did not list a year group for incoming JUCO transfer DT Hebron Fangupo. According to WeAreSC.com Fangupo will "enroll at USC in January 2009 and have three years to play two." I take that to mean that he can either play in 2009 & 2010 OR redshirt in 2009 and play in 2010 & 2011.

3) It was pointed out that FB/S Alfred Rowe has been dismissed from USC due to academic issues. Rowe joins former Long Beach Poly teammate CB Vincent Joseph in that regards. Another reason why recruiting a FB and some DB's in the class of 2009 is essential.

4) The latest verbal commitment for the class of 2009 is 4.0-star WR Alshon Jeffery (6'3", 205+) out of St. Matthews, SC. I'm sure the Ol' Ball Coach, better known as Steve Spurrier, isn't happy about this commitment. I wouldn't count Jeffery as a sure thing though. Bobby Petrino was able to successfully lure hometown hero Joe Adams to Arkansas and away from his commitment to USC this year. The comment about Jeffery being another Mike Williams type receiver doesn't do much for me. Patrick Turner, Vidal Hazelton and David Ausberry are all big receivers but none of them have developed into a dominant player like Mike Williams or Dwayne Jarrett (yet).

5) And now for the big question... and I love to talk about quarterback controversies, what football fan doesn't? The question was asked: "What do you think will happen with the QB situation?" This question was referring to the upcoming Mustain-Corp-Barkley battle in 2010 and beyond. First, let me tell you how I've seen the past quarterback competitions...

In 2003 the battle was between Leinart-Hance-Cassel-Booty. Coach Carroll named former Mater Dei star Matt Leinart as Carson Palmer's replacement at the end of spring practice in 2003. Brandon Hance had starting experience at Purdue before transferring to USC. Matt Cassel had served as Palmer's back-up in 2000 & 2001 and was the only one of the bunch to actually throw a pass in a game while wearing a Trojan uniform. John David Booty was the latest high school phenom that had actually skipped his entire senior year of high school to join the Trojans early. The vast majority of Trojan internet fans were calling for Booty to take the reigns. At the time I argued for Leinart. I had seen both Hance and Cassel play and hadn't been particularly impressed with either. I hadn't seen Leinart or Booty play other then in high school highlight video. But I thought that Booty was too young and not ready to go a full season as the Trojans' starting quarterback. I argued that Booty should redshirt, after all Hance and Cassel both had experience and would likely serve as solid back-ups. Leinart won the job, Booty moved all the way up to become the #2 QB. Booty ended up redshirting in 2004 due to a back injury.

In 2006 the vast majority of Trojan internet fans were calling for Mark Sanchez, the latest high school phenom, to take the reigns as the Trojans starting QB. Many argued that Booty's arm strength was weaker then Sanchez' arm strength. I found that amusing because that is exactly the same argument many used to tout Booty over Leinart in 2003! Once again, I found myself arguing that the younger Sanchez needed more time to mature and that the veteran Booty was more prepared to be the starter. While few would argue that Leinart supporters in 2003 were right, some might argue that Sanchez would have performed better then Booty in 2006 and 2007. It's difficult to say. We are probably all guilty of over criticizing Booty these last couple of seasons. What was JDB's major crime? No national championship game. If he had a minor crime it was the number of passes batted down at the line of scrimmage (especially at key times in close losses). Can we blame him for being a competitor during the Stanford loss and not letting the coaches know how badly his finger was injured? I say no. The coaching staff should have pulled him after the second interception. The blame for the Stanford loss should rest more on the coaching staff then on the players in my opinion. But I would still argue that Booty was an excellent QB for the Trojans. He had a 20-3 record as a starting QB and holds the record for most touchdown passes in the history of the Rose Bowl. He won't go down as a truly great QB because he didn't get the Trojans to the national championship game.

In fall 2007 the vast majority of Trojan internet fans were already calling for Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain to take the reigns as the Trojans starting QB in 2008. The argument was that Sanchez hadn't developed enough during his time as a back-up. I again had to laugh! Where were they coming up with this stuff? Sanchez was named the offensive scout team player of the year in 2005. What exactly had he done to warrant being passed over in favor of Mustain? Coach Carroll's philosophy is all about competition. I think Sanchez has proven to be both a great competitor and a solid leader. Yes he had an off the field incident but that never ended up amounting to much. I once again found myself defending the longer established Trojan QB over the incoming phenom. Then Booty went down with the finger injury. Sanchez stepped in and showed both flashes of greatness and inexperience. Suddenly Trojan fans stopped talking about Mustain. I think they saw a fire in Sanchez that they hadn't seen in Booty. I believe that if Sanchez would have replaced Booty early in the 4th quarter of the Stanford game that the Trojans would have played Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game and that LSU fans would still be whining and crying about it today! So Sanchez has now been named the starting QB for the 2008 season and those fans that were touting Mustain have remained quiet.

So I still haven't gotten to the question... first, I want to say that the Sanchez-Mustain-Corp competition is far from over. You might be asking didn't he just defend the Sanchez decision? Yes but... anything can happen in college football as we were reminded of so well during the crazy 2007 season. I believe that Sanchez will not only play well but that he will be a superstar. I think he may throw a few more interceptions then Booty or Leinart, but that he will make many, many more big plays then either of his two predecessors. The big question to me is - will Coach Carroll put Mustain in the Virginia or Ohio State games if Sanchez isn't getting the offense in the end zone enough to keep the Trojans in the lead? If Sanchez survives the first two games and the Trojans are 2-0, the job is his for as long as he wants it and can stay healthy. If the Trojan offense stumbles out of the gate in either of those games, Mustain will likely get a chance to prove himself.

So finally to the question at hand - what do I think will happen in the 2010 & 2011 quarterback competitions? Assuming Sanchez holds the job in 2008 & 2009, I think Mustain will win the job in 2010. Once again I find myself arguing for the more experienced kid. Mustain was a 5.0-star blue chip recruit. He was impressive as a true freshman starting QB at Arkansas leading his team to an 8-0 record against SEC opponents. He was the 2007 offensive scout team player of the year. From what I've read he was very impressive during spring 2008 scrimmages. I think Mustain will see more playing time in 2008 & 2009 then we've seen any other Trojan back-up QB during the Pete Carroll era. And I think that means that the question for 2011 comes down to can Aaron Corp beat out Matt Barkley?

After reading all this you'll probably be mad at my answer... PATIENCE. I don't think any of us have enough information on Corp or Barkley yet. Corp still needs to put on some muscle. He is supposedly a very talented runner but doesn't have the body yet to sustain a beating week after week. From what I've read, Corp was impressive in spring 2008 drills. The reason he wasn't as big of a recruit as Booty, Sanchez or Mustain is that he didn't have an off-the-charts junior season of high school like the others did. That's how the hype machine gets started for all these blue chippers (its actually more like you need to have a stellar sophomore year of high school nowadays). So Corp is still a developing kid. Barkley is just starting his senior year of high school. Yes he was the first ever junior to be named the Gatorade National High School Player-of-the-Year but he is also still a developing kid.

I would be surprised if Corp decides to transfer once he's made it through the 2009 season in a Trojan uniform. He's already used his redshirt year. If he transfers to another D-I school he'll have to sit out another season! So if he is to transfer he should do it sooner rather then later (or to a D-II school if he decides to do it later).

One thing is for sure - the vast majority of Trojan internet fans will be calling for Barkley to take the reigns in 2010 (even over Mustain).

5 Comments:

At 12:01 PM, Blogger T&L said...

Thanks Scott for making the cfb season interesting. More importantly, thanks for your service to America. I'm sorry to hear about your knee injury. A speedy recovery to you! Is there anything you need?

 
At 2:17 PM, Blogger Matt said...

Scott -

Thanks for putting so much time, research and thought into your posts.

A couple of comments:

1. I agree with the magazines that predict Ohio St. in the title game again this year after an 11-1 season with zero victories over top-15 teams. It's disgraceful, it's unfair, but it's also going to be an agent for change. The SEC, Big 12 and Pac-10 teams that are better than Ohio St. but get a lower ranking because they played a tougher schedule aren't going to put up with this BS forever.

2. I largely agree with your analysis of the Trojan QB's over the past 8 years, but I do take exception to one thing you said: "(Mark Sanchez) will make many, many more big plays then either of his two predecessors." JDB had absolutely no ability to make a big play, I think everyone does agree on that. But Leinart was all about big plays. He was cool under pressure and seemed to do better the more intense the game got. It seemed to me that EVERY time USC needed a play, he got it done. It could be argued that his perfect call and touch-pass to Jarrett in the Notre Dame game is the biggest play in USC football history (above Davis' KO return). I agree that Sanchez has big-play ability and a natural sense of leadership and positive emotions, but let's not dismiss the achievements of the greatest QB in CFB history.

3. As for this year, I agree that the first two games are critical for Sanchez, but I don't think Carroll will yank him if he's doing poorly. Carroll seems to feel that once he's made a decision on QB, he's going ride it out. He's confident in his decisions and looks at the long haul. This is probably the mentality that cost USC the Stanford game last year, but I don't think that means he's changing any. His confidence in his starter needs to be unwavering so that the team can have the same level of confidence in their QB.

As for 2011, we're asking you for your OPINION Scott! "Patience" isn't an opinion! Stick your neck out, choose a guy and tell us why. It's ok to be wrong...we just want to hear your guess.

 
At 6:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Scott,

Awesome post. As for fullbacks, I understand why nobody wants to be the back-up fullback. look at david kirtman, who was a GREAT fullback for us, did exactly what we wanted and was good at it... he ended up being a 5th round draft pick (the first fullback taken that year, btw). peyton hillis out of arkansas and owen schmitt out of west virginia - the top two fullbacks in the nation last year - went in the 5th and 7th rounds. not quite the status of running backs (allen bradford, broderick green) or linebackers (jordan campbell). on top of that, the back-up fullback will get little to no touches. it appears that the back-up fullback, much like the backup qb or backup kickers/punters, only sees playing time if the incumbent is injured. with stanley havili as the no-brainer starter, how could you blame former hs all-americans for not wanting to switch? perhaps if havili went down (like hancock and powdrell), but not when havili's healthy. kids coming to sc want two things: playing time and a shot at being a high draft pick. right now, being a fullback leads to neither. instead of complaining that they won't switch permanently, we should be grateful that bradford and campbell both switched their frosh years.

plus, i really think both bradford and campbell will end up being spectacular players for us at RB and LB.

basically, in conclusion, thank you stanley havili.

are you planning on analyzing opposing teams' starting lineups (with the compiled star ratings) like you did two seasons ago? those were great.

also, i'm not sure if you're already aware, but while you were gone, ben malcomson (the daily trojan writer who made the team as a walk-on WR in 06) started a blog on pete carroll's official website, and its jam-packed with great insider info and photos. check it out!

keep up the good stuff.

 
At 6:35 PM, Blogger Matt said...

Good point about the fullback, Anonymous. You are right that these athletes are too highly recruited to want to be a backup fullback. No PT and no draft consideration. That's pretty crazy that Hillis was a 5th round pick.

 
At 7:13 PM, Blogger Scott said...

Point taken Matt... My gut says that Barkley will be the starting QB in 2011 and that Corp will either transfer or be a back-up for his entire career...

 

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